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Marcus Rashford has played almost 30,000 minutes in his career already at the age of 27
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The model has predicted he will reach only 36,595, meaning he is already nearly 75% through his career and will continue to decline.
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His peak was the 2022/23 season, but he played a staggering 4,287 minutes and it has come at the cost of future performances.
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Michael Owen and Dele Alli have comparable minutes played and injuries sustained ratios to the Manchester United forward – fellow wonderkids who peaked early in their career before entering a state of decline.
Data suggests incoming Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim could well wield the proverbial axe on the career of Marcus Rashford.
The 27-year-old, who has scored once in ten Premier League games this season, has already played a significant amount of minutes in his career having burst onto the scene as a teenager in the 2015/16 season under Louis van Gaal.
However, data analysts at Completesports.com have tracked these minutes and compared them to fellow English wonderkids, who proceeded to enter a period of decline. Michael Owen and Dele Alli were perhaps two of the brightest superstars who, despite early promise, failed to achieve their fullest potential due to injuries.
Overplaying young athletes can lead to increased injury risks, affecting their long-term performance and career longevity. This report will analyse their game time, injury histories, and explain just how long Rashford has left at the elite level.
Game Time and Injury Data Overview
| Player | Total Number of Days Injured | Average duration of Injury (Days) | Total Number of games missed | Average Number of games missed | Number of Injuries | Total Career Mins | Mins Per Injury | Mins / Total Number of Days Injured |
| Michael Owen | 868 | 96.44 | 179 | 19.89 | 9 | 33,802 | 3,756 | 39 |
| Dele Alli | 635 | 42.33 | 155 | 11.07 | 15 | 26,875 | 1,792 | 42 |
| Marcus Rashford | 334 | 27.83 | 50 | 4.17 | 12 | 28,626 | 2,386 | 86 |
| Cole Palmer | 120 | 30.00 | 23 | 7.67 | 4 | 10,526 | 2,632 | 88 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 283 | 21.77 | 62 | 4.77 | 13 | 27,266 | 2,097 | 96 |
| Wayne Rooney | 452 | 17.38 | 153 | 5.88 | 26 | 60,125 | 2,313 | 133 |
| Steven Gerrard | 456 | 25.33 | 97 | 5.39 | 18 | 60,691 | 3,372 | 133 |
| Raheem Sterling | 299 | 19.93 | 58 | 3.87 | 15 | 41,843 | 2,790 | 140 |
| Phil Foden | 136 | 22.67 | 28 | 5.60 | 6 | 20,596 | 3,433 | 151 |
| Frank Lampard | 353 | 27.15 | 88 | 6.77 | 13 | 72,097 | 5,546 | 204 |
| Bukayo Saka | 61 | 8.71 | 15 | 2.50 | 7 | 21,685 | 3,098 | 355 |
Marcus Rashford is showing signs of struggling with the increased workload he has been put under since an explosive debut almost a decade ago. He is only able to manage 2,386 minutes before sustaining an injury, missing an average of more than four games each time.
In comparison to Dele Alli and Michael Owen, this is relatively small. Owen tended to be injured for 96.44 days on average, whilst Dele sustained 15 injuries in comparison to Rashford’s 12. However, the number of minutes he has already played in his career and the steady decline in his goal contributions is what will alarm Amorim.
Whereas players like Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard played fewer minutes as youngsters and developed into superstars, Rashford was thrust into the limelight before his body had a chance to develop. As we can see from the graph below, his output as a forward will gradually tail off at the elite level.
Overuse and Its Impact on Performance
Research into sports injuries has shown that overuse and intense physical activity, particularly at a young age, increases the risk of injury and can result in long-term musculoskeletal issues. Studies indicate that repetitive strain without adequate recovery time may lead to chronic injuries and a gradual decline in performance.
Rashford has played 28,992 minutes so far in his career by the age of 27. This works out to an average of 2,899 per season, which is a little over 32 games per season. Before the age of 24, he had already played 18,050 minutes and had 132 goal contributions in total. However after the 2021/22 season, where he played a staggering 57 times for Manchester United, Rashford contributed just seven goals and assists and played 32 times.
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Although he incredibly bounced back in Erik ten Hag’s first season at Old Trafford with 39 goal contributions in all competitions, he has dropped off dramatically since then and his output has slowed – even though his appearances remain constant. The projection by data analysts at Complete Sport believe Rashford will continue to reach double digits for goals scored just TWICE more in his career and has effectively got one elite season left.
Projection of Rashford’s career
| Season_Number | Season | Age | Gls | Ast | G&A | MP | Min_Time |
| 1 | 2015-2016 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 1,406 |
| 2 | 2016-2017 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 53 | 3,077 |
| 3 | 2017-2018 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 2,683 |
| 4 | 2018-2019 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 47 | 3,281 |
| 5 | 2019-2020 | 21 | 22 | 9 | 31 | 44 | 3,459 |
| 6 | 2020-2021 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 34 | 57 | 4,144 |
| 7 | 2021-2022 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 1,657 |
| 8 | 2022-2023 | 24 | 30 | 9 | 39 | 56 | 4,287 |
| 9 | 2023-2024 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 3,046 |
| 10 | 2024-2025 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 33 | 1,952 |
| 11 | 2025-2026 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1,687 |
| 12 | 2026-2027 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 2,109 |
| 13 | 2027-2028 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 1,580 |
| 14 | 2028-2029 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 995 |
| 15 | 2029-2030 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 645 |
| 16 | 2030-2031 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 498 |
| 17 | 2031-2032 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 89 |
| Total | 175 | 77 | 252 | 574 | 36,595 |
As we can see from the projection (indicated with the underline on the table) Rashford will end this season by playing 33 games for Manchester United and achieving 14 goals and assists.
The model believes he will play a total of 36,595 minutes in his career, having already played 28,992. This means he has already played 79.2% of his career and has just 20.8% of his career left at the elite level. This works out to be 139 games.
Whilst Rashford will still finish on more than 250 goal contributions in his career, it is worth noting he achieved 191 of these (76.4%) of these at the end of last season.
Scientific Insights: Risks of Overplaying at a Young Age
Research has shown that athletes, particularly footballers, who are exposed to heavy workloads at a young age are more susceptible to both acute and chronic injuries.
Studies indicate that players who accumulate high minutes early in their careers without adequate rest are prone to muscle injuries, joint problems, and long-term physical decline.
- A 2018 study published in the Journal of Athletic Training found that young athletes subjected to sustained overuse were more likely to suffer long-term muscular injuries, impacting their performance in the latter stages of their careers .
- The British Journal of Sports Medicine also highlighted the importance of periodization and recovery, emphasising that players under the age of 23 are particularly vulnerable to injury if they lack structured rest.
Sources
- Transfermarkt, Player Injury Data.
- Scientific American, Overuse Injuries in Young Athletes .
- FIFA Medical Report on Overuse Injuries in Football
- Journal of Athletic Training
- British Journal of Sports Medicine
